Our Pension at Risk?
The deep crisis in the financial world has been hooked on all those who are related to private pension funds and voluntary contributions or any part of the statement of solidarity. Sure, the thing in other country is not as serious as in the United States, but before such a tremendous financial risk is latent, without involving a red alert, even when taking into account the disturbing news January 2008 the pension system and unemployment had losses of more than 2 billion dollars and the recently announced as the same entity that following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers will hit at least five fund administrators Pension (AFP) for a value close to the 55,000 million pesos and that those losses could be reflected in the next few excerpts received by savers.
When you read things like these can not but be alarmed. But with all the information that we have, starting with the extracts from our own individual pension and unemployment and ending with explanations encouraging the Minister of Finance, I am convinced that we must not alarmed, at least for now. We’re not in the position of contributors in the United States, Mexico, Chile or Argentina, especially those who do the voluntary plans in the USA), which have seen their time away in a huge siphon money by the collapse in stock indices. Remarked here that the only case in U.S. funds, public and private pension and private retirement accounts of workers-the so-called 401 (k) – have lost nearly 30 percent of its value in the last year! Therefore, as the Superintendent, the impact of the latest loss is a minimum of 55,000 million (losses of the new year had already been recovered for the month of April) when compared to the overall volume of portfolio investment Fund Administrators handle the pension is 57 billion pesos, and also much of the investments of these entities have been playing safe and not toxic in the papers as it has gone abroad in the countries stated above.
All these reasons lead us to conclude that by now our pension not run more risks, but before the shocking proportions reached by the loss of pension systems in many countries of the world must demand much more control, more regulation and many further assurances from the Colombian state to make sure all the contributors to the monthly and may persist until death, to this point in the discussion include the possibility of returning to a full public pension.
How to Know if Interest Rates Will Rise or Down
Intuitively, many people know that if interest rates are low is not the time saving, and if interest rates are high is not the time to invest (at least borrow). Therefore, people are always still to read the newspaper, listen to the news on television and listen to renowned economists to find out their views about the future of interest rates.
I’m going to give you a tip that I gave in the Master of Finance, this tip is not a theory, which involves 100% accurate in practice but it does in many cases.
Turn on the TV or buy the newspaper and see advertisements banks. If you see excessive ads promoting credit banks with fixed rates of interest, then interest rates will go down or will remain low. On the other hand, if you see excessive ads promoting savings banks for a fixed term, then surely the interest rates will rise or will remain high.
What is the reason for this?
Assume that the borrowing rates of interest (savings) are 8%, and banks estimate that will rise to 10%, then they will promote savings with a fixed rate of approximately 9%. With this, the top rates to 10%, there’s a lot of customers with their savings “tied” to 9%. That is, you are charging less to customers to keep their savings.
That differential of 10% – 9% = 1%, as banks gain with this strategy.
On the other hand, if the lending rates of interest (loans) are at 20% and the banks consider going down to 18%, then they will promote credit and term fixed rates approaching 19%. So, when rates drop to 18% will be a lot of customers with their claims “tied” to 19%, ie, customers will pay more expensive your credit value.
This differential is, of course, the banks earn.
